Crude oil price forecasting based on internet concern using an extreme learning machine

The growing internet concern (IC) over the crude oil market and related events influences market trading, thus creating further instability within the oil market itself. We propose a modeling framework for analyzing the effects of IC on the oil market and for predicting the price volatility of crude oil’s futures market. This novel approach decomposes the original time series into intrinsic modes at different time scales using bivariate empirical mode decomposition (BEMD). The relationship between the oil price volatility and IC at an individual frequency is investigated. By utilizing decomposed intrinsic modes as specified characteristics, we also construct extreme learning machine (ELM) models with variant forecasting schemes. The experimental results illustrate that ELM models that incorporate intrinsic modes and IC outperform the baseline ELM and other benchmarks at distinct horizons. Having the power to improve the accuracy of baseline models, internet searching is a practical way of quantifying investor attention, which can help to predict short-run price fluctuations in the oil market.     

The Investment Performance of Art in Mainland China

This article investigates price determinants and investment performance for paintings from mainland China using hedonic regression analysis applied to a new dataset from over 190,000 auction transactions. The price index obtained indicates that from 2000 to 2015, the average annual appreciation in value of Chinese art was 8.42% in real USD. Compared with American artwork, global artwork, and traditional financial assets, Chinese art possesses a comparatively better risk and return profile and a low correlation with other assets. Finally, regarding the masterpiece effect, the conclusion is that highly priced Chinese art does not underperform the market.     

A Framework for the Simultaneous Measurement of Spatial Variation and Temporal Movement in Prices in a Heterogeneous Country: The Dynamic Household Regional Product Dummy Model

This paper contributes to the growing literature on spatial prices in large heterogeneous countries. While the literatures on spatial variation and temporal movement in prices have grown in parallel, this study marks a departure by providing a unified treatment and proposing a comprehensive framework that allows both approaches. The proposed model is based on twin extensions of the household version of the “country product dummy model” by allowing for a dynamic stochastic specification and interdependence of spatial prices of geographically adjacent regions. Tests of temporal stability and regional independence of the estimated spatial prices are proposed and applied in this paper. The paper shows that the introduction of an autoregressive error process of order one, AR(1), improves the efficiency of the estimates of parameters, urban‐rural and temporal price indices under certain conditions. The Indian application points to a rich potential for using the proposed framework in cross country comparisons such as the International Comparison Program (ICP) exercises.     

The capital market spillover effect of product market advertising: Evidence from stock price synchronicity

We analyze whether product market advertising has a spillover effect on stock price synchronicity by transmitting firm-specific information to the capital market and attracting more investor attention. Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2017, we find that firms with greater advertising expenditures have lower stock price synchronicity. The results are robust after we address endogeneity concerns. In accord with our hypothesis that product market advertising increases the amount of firm-level information capitalized into stock prices through the information channel, we find that the impact of advertising on synchronicity is more pronounced for firms with a higher degree of information asymmetry and firms in the consumer-product industry. Further tests show that product market advertising enhances the ability of current period returns to reflect future earnings, and thus rules out that the negative relationship between advertising and synchronicity is driven by noise trading. Our results imply that product market advertising plays an informative role and improves information efficiency in a capital market.     

Does distance matter in foreign direct investment sub-national location choice? Evidence from China

Multinational enterprises (MNEs) make investment decisions according to the distance factors at a sub-national level. This paper made estimates using the gravity model with provincial foreign direct investment (FDI) data from 2000 to 2012 and employed three concepts of distance. Our empirical results indicate that geographic distance and cultural distance have significant negative effects on FDI flow, whereas economic distance has a significant positive effect. It suggests that FDI prefers to locate in regions that are geographically and culturally close but economically distant from the home country, which further implies that FDI in China is dominated by vertical FDI. Our findings suggest that Chinese provincial governments should place emphasis on attracting FDI from culturally close countries and provide institutional support to encourage and promote horizontal FDI.     

被处罚的A级景区存在的问题及应对策略

旅游景区的管理与建设对旅游业的发展至关重要。然而,截至2019年7月底,全国有数百家A级景区由于管理与建设不善,受到摘牌、降级等处罚。对照《旅游景区质量等级的划分与评定》可以发现,被处罚的景区主要存在的问题:景区配套设施管理差、旅游交通不畅、游览设施与服务不健全、景区卫生差、景区市场吸引力小等。因此,政府必须与景区相配合,采取相应对策,强化景区建设与管理;提升景区资源、市场吸引力等,以扭转被动局面,推动旅游景区的健康发展。     

苏北地区农业完全成本水价农户承受力调查——基于水源地生态补偿的视角

南水北调东线一期工程江苏段的主要目标是向苏北供水,缓解该地区的农业用水短缺问题。但现行农业水价未考虑水源区的机会成本损失,不利于调动水源区环境保护积极性。论文设计单边界CVM引导技术,估算了苏北农户以提高农业水价的方式对水源区生态补偿的支付意愿。研究发现,苏北农户生态补偿支付意愿为7.63元/亩,但在不同作物种植结构和不同城市存在较大异质性。未来3年内,苏北农业用水每年所提供的生态补偿资金总额在1.526~1.679亿元之间。在发达地区探索构建绿色导向的农业水价体系有利于为其他地区提供先行示范效应。     

Understanding the drivers of organic foods purchasing of millennials: Evidence from Brazil and Spain

This paper examines the antecedents of millennials' organic food purchasing. A conceptual framework, based on product characteristics, and consumers' concerns and consciousness, is proposed. Data collection was conducted through a survey in two culturally and socioeconomically distinct countries (Brazil vs. Spain) to increase the robustness and generalizability of the results. The results show that product characteristics and consumer concerns improve millennials’ health consciousness and increase their social consciousness, which, in turn, increase their willingness to pay a price premium and their purchase frequency of organic foods. The findings show that the proposed model has high validity, with only one significant difference between the two countries. Theoretical contributions and managerial implications are discussed.     

Is showrooming really so terrible? start understanding showroomers

The customer journey is more omni-channel than ever. In this scenario, so-called showrooming behavior emerges as a growing trend that is usually considered by retailers as a threat. The purpose of this research is to analyze whether showrooming, when compared with online buying behavior in which the customer does not visit the store prior to the purchase, has a positive effect on the price paid online by the customer. The empirical research is based on the database compiled by GfK, which contains detailed information about the shopping journey of 4067 customers who purchased products from different retail sectors. The results, derived from the estimation of several regression models, reveal that showroomers who use their smartphones in store are more likely to purchase products at a higher price, which explains why these customers can be of special interest to retailers.